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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still